Earlier this week, Anthropic stated in their S1 that they “may imminently meet” the threshold of “dramatically accelerated progress due to AI” as defined in their Responsible Scaling Policy. In their latest RSP (effective July 2026), say this threshold will be met when:
- They observe or expect overall capabilities progress to be going twice as fast as the fastest sustained rate before AI was contributing much to AI R&D.
- This is plausibly attributable to AI automating AI R&D, rather than acceleration in compute or other inputs.
For the last few months, some of my colleagues at METR have been working on a deep-access investigation to understand how much Anthropic is being accelerated by its AI systems. From my reading of their report and Anthropic’s RSP, it looks like the “dramatic acceleration” threshold has already been crossed.
The...
TLDR: I give informal conceptual desiderata for the theory of agents we need to solve ASI alignment, and show a few examples of how existing theories fall short of these desiderata.
The word "agent" is often used in the AI safety discourse and in other research communities, but the intended meaning and scope of this concept varies substantially. For the purpose of this sequence, I informally define an agent to be a system with inputs ("observations") and outputs ("actions") that is effective at steering its environment in the direction of particular preferences, for a large variety of different environments. To do so, it arguably has to create a sophisticated model of the environment [1] , and use...
AI researchers warn that advanced machine learning systems may develop their own internal goals that don't match what we intended. This "mesa-optimization" could lead AI systems to pursue unintended and potentially dangerous objectives, even if we tried to design them to be safe and aligned with human values.