The Solomonoff prior is a mathematical formalization of Occam's razor. It's intended to provide a way to assign probabilities to observations based on their simplicity. However, the simplest programs that predict observations well might be universes containing intelligent agents trying to influence the predictions. This makes the Solomonoff prior "malign" - its predictions are influenced by the preferences of simulated beings.
We want to get this post out quickly given the urgency of the topic. It’s possible that there are some errors in the modeling, but we think it’s very unlikely that they undermine the high level conclusions. We would love to be corrected on any mistakes we made.
METR recently estimated that Anthropic is now making AI progress about twice as fast as its historical rate (they would not be surprised by anything from 1.3x to 3x), and guessed that “perhaps ≈80%” of the current acceleration is due to AI. If they’re right, that implies an AI-driven acceleration that is 5 months ahead of the AI 2027 scenario.
This level of acceleration due to AI is very unexpected. Previously, Daniel, the most bullish of us, assigned a 50% chance...
(Thanks to @Goutham Nalagatla for discussion and for sitting with me and talking about it while I wrote it.)
METR recently released a report estimating that Anthropic is getting an overall 1.7x acceleration in AI capability progress as a result of AI accelerating their work. As many have noted (see e.g. Ajeya’s post), this 1.7x acceleration implies that research is being sped up by much more than 1.7x; Ajeya speculates 10x (which is similar to the ~12x uplift estimated by Anthropic staff). That is, this result implies that researchers are producing about 10 times as many quality-adjusted results as they would without AI progress, or as they were a year or two ago.
Anthropic researchers estimated that Mythos 5 caused 5x uplift, and we have access to Opus 5.5,...
TLDR: I give informal conceptual desiderata for the theory of agents we need to solve ASI alignment, and show a few examples of how existing theories fall short of these desiderata.
The word "agent" is often used in the AI safety discourse and in other research communities, but the intended meaning and scope of this concept varies substantially. For the purpose of this sequence, I informally define an agent to be a system with inputs ("observations") and outputs ("actions") that is effective at steering its environment in the direction of particular preferences, for a large variety of different environments. To do so, it arguably has to create a sophisticated model of the environment [1] , and use...