Andrew Critch lists several research areas that seem important to AI existential safety, and evaluates them for direct helpfulness, educational value, and neglect. Along the way, he argues that the main way he sees present-day technical research helping is by anticipating, legitimizing and fulfilling governance demands for AI technology that will arise later.
We want to get this post out quickly given the urgency of the topic. It’s possible that there are some errors in the modeling, but we think it’s very unlikely that they undermine the high level conclusions. We would love to be corrected on any mistakes we made.
METR recently estimated that Anthropic is now making AI progress about twice as fast as its historical rate (they would not be surprised by anything from 1.3x to 3x), and guessed that “perhaps ≈80%” of the current acceleration is due to AI. If they’re right, that implies an AI-driven acceleration that is 5 months ahead of the AI 2027 scenario.
This level of acceleration due to AI is very unexpected. Previously, Daniel, the most bullish of us, assigned a 50% chance...
I used to think of "automating alignment" as a natural category. But when I tried to think through the strategic implications, I realised that it depends a lot on the type of work. I'm now thinking of it in three buckets:
In the rest of this post I'll walk through my current takes on these in terms what’s needed for automation, how good or bad they look, what our priorities might...
(Thanks to @Goutham Nalagatla for discussion and for sitting with me and talking about it while I wrote it.)
METR recently released a report estimating that Anthropic is getting an overall 1.7x acceleration in AI capability progress as a result of AI accelerating their work. As many have noted (see e.g. Ajeya’s post), this 1.7x acceleration implies that research is being sped up by much more than 1.7x; Ajeya speculates 10x (which is similar to the ~12x uplift estimated by Anthropic staff). That is, this result implies that researchers are producing about 10 times as many quality-adjusted results as they would without AI progress, or as they were a year or two ago.
Anthropic researchers estimated that Mythos 5 caused 5x uplift, and we have access to Opus 5.5,...
TLDR: I give informal conceptual desiderata for the theory of agents we need to solve ASI alignment, and show a few examples of how existing theories fall short of these desiderata.
The word "agent" is often used in the AI safety discourse and in other research communities, but the intended meaning and scope of this concept varies substantially. For the purpose of this sequence, I informally define an agent to be a system with inputs ("observations") and outputs ("actions") that is effective at steering its environment in the direction of particular preferences, for a large variety of different environments. To do so, it arguably has to create a sophisticated model of the environment [1] , and use...
In retrospect I agree that that comment was somewhat unfair/harsh. Sorry.
Rough argument: the end result of most of the parameter-turing being done is changing the shape of the probability distribution over 2027-2028. If paying attention to exact choices of parameters matters, that means those changes matter. That, in turn, implies that useful actionable information can be gleaned from the shape of the distribution over that t... (read more)