Black Swans

A Black Swansblack swan are huge risksis a high-impact event that youris hard to predict (but not necessarily of low probability). Also, an event that is not accounted for in a model, and therefore causes the model of prediction didnto break down when it occurs.

Considering some event a black swan doesn't account for.give a leave to not assign any probabilities, since making decisions depending on the plausibility of such event is still equivalent to assigning probabilities that make the expected utility calculation give those decisions.

External posts:

• White Swans Painted Black by Peter McCluskey

See also

• Narrative fallacy
• Hindsight bias
• I don't know
• Prediction, prediction market, forecast

A black swanBlack Swans is a high-impact eventare huge risks that is hard to predict (but not necessarilyyour model of low probability). Also, an event that is not accounted for in a model, and therefore causes the model to break down when it occurs.

Considering some event a black swan doesn'prediction didn't give a leave to not assign any probabilities, since making decisions depending on the plausibility of such event is still equivalent to assigning probabilities that make the expected utility calculation give those decisions.account for.

Blog posts

• Risk-Free Bonds Aren't by Eliezer Yudkowsky
• White Swans Painted Black by Peter McCluskey

See also

• Narrative fallacy
• Hindsight bias
• I don't know
• Prediction, prediction market, forecast

• Narrative fallacy
• Hindsight bias
• I don't know
• Prediction, prediction market, forecast

• Narrative fallacy
• Hindsight bias
• I don't know
• Prediction, prediction market

Considering some event a black swan doesn't give a leave to not assign any probabilities, since making decisions depending on the plausibility of such event is still equivalent to assigning probabilities that make the expected utility calculation give those decisions.

See also

• I don't know

A black swan is a high-impact low-probability event,event that is hard to predict (but not necessarily of low probability). Also, an event that is not accounted for in a model, whichand therefore causes the model to break down when it occurs.

A black swan is an event that is hard to predict and has enormous impact. Also, an event that isa high-impact low-probability event, not accounted for in a model, andwhich therefore causes the model to break down when it occurs.

• Risk-Free Bonds Aren't by Eliezer Yudkowsky
• White Swans Painted Black by Peter McCluskey

A Blackblack swan is an event that is hard to predict and has enormous impact. Also, an event that is not accounted for in a model, and therefore causes the model to breakdownbreak down when it occurs.

ReferencesBlog posts

Overcoming Bias Articles