Hans Moravec: Behold my book Mind Children. Within, I project that, in 2010 or thereabouts, we shall achieve strong AI. I am not calling it "Artificial General Intelligence" because this term will not be coined for another 15 years or so.
Eliezer (who is not actually on the record as saying this, because the real Eliezer is, in this scenario, 8 years old; this version of Eliezer has all the meta-heuristics of Eliezer from 2021, but none of that Eliezer's anachronistic knowledge): Really? That sounds like a very difficult prediction to make correctly, since it is about the future, which is famously hard to predict.
Imaginary Moravec: Sounds like a fully general counterargument to me.
Eliezer: Well, it is, indeed, a fully general counterargument against futurism. Successfully predicting...
Preface for LessWrong: When I think back on my most cherished memories of this community, I return to those honoring defiance in pursuit of goodness:
I cannot return to you and say “I defied and then I won.” But I’m at least here to say “I defied.”
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In January, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officers...
While Eliezer may have gained Bayes poi... (read more)