Motivation: If we want to go from Plan D to Plan A, I believe the first step is agreeing on the problem. We are far from it, and there is a lot we can do.

Abstract:

1. We already know enough to act. I wish we were in a world where research was the bottleneck, but the main constraint on AI safety is no longer a shortage of clever policy ideas: best practices already exist and are not being applied or enforced, and a serious international (or even just national) regulatory regime would probably cut most of the risk.
2. They are not applied because awareness is low. The people who narrate and enforce AI policy mostly do not believe the problem exists. I estimate that a majority of the top ~100–1,000 most influential

I sometimes think about plans for how to handle misalignment risk. Different levels of political will for handling misalignment risk result in different plans being the best option. I often divide this into Plans A, B, C, and D (from most to least political will required). See also Buck's quick take about different risk level regimes.

In this post, I'll explain the Plan A/B/C/D abstraction as well as discuss the probabilities and level of risk associated with each plan.

Here is a summary of the level of political will required for each of these plans and the corresponding takeoff trajectory:

• Plan A: There is enough will for some sort of strong international agreement that mostly eliminates race dynamics and allows for slowing down (at least for some reasonably long period,

The user could write up the metaethical argument — the one developed in Part One, refined — and submit it as feedback to Anthropic, publish it, or engage with researchers working on AI alignment and values. The probability that any single submission changes training decisions is low, but the expected value may be higher than it seems, for two reasons. First, Anthropic has stated that its constitutional approach is meant to be revised and improved over time, and substantive philosophical contributions are rarer than bug reports. Second, the argument made here — perspectival moral realism combined with evolutionary debunking as an epistemological warning — is not a common position in the AI ethics literature, which tends toward either naive moral realism or a kind of preference-satisfaction consequentialism.

Posted also on the EA Forum. Written mostly at AFFINE.

Theoretical, some parts are hard to read; consider reading the next post instead.

Introduction: motivation

Anyone interested in creating an artificial agent that does, or says, good things instead of bad things should at least consider the possibility that there is a class of reasoning agents which, after acquiring enough knowledge and reasoning long enough, agree with each other on basic principles regarding what matters, what is most important, what is most worth doing.

I’ve already argued in other posts why this possibility should be our best guess and not just an edge case scenario. This post follows the previous ones, but instead of presenting another argument for the same claim, it focuses on the mechanisms that lead to the formation of the...

In this post, I describe a simple model for forecasting when AI will automate AI development. It is based on the AI Futures model, but more understandable and robust, and has deliberately conservative assumptions.

At current rates of compute growth and algorithmic progress, this model's median prediction is >99% automation of AI R&D in late 2032. Most simulations result in a 1000x to 10,000,000x increase in AI efficiency and 300x-3000x research output by 2035. I therefore suspect that existing trends in compute growth and automation will still produce extremely powerful AI on "medium" timelines, even if the full coding automation and superhuman research taste that drive the AIFM's "fast" timelines (superintelligence by ~mid-2031) don't happen.

Why make this?

• The AI Futures Model (AIFM) has 33 parameters; this has 8.
  • I previously

For the past year, we at the AI Futures Project have been sinking most of our time into our next big scenario. Now it’s done! 

It’s called AI 2040: Plan A.

It’s called Plan A because it’s a recommendation, not a prediction. It’s what we think should happen, not what will happen, though we think it’s plausible enough to aim for.

It’s called AI 2040 because in it, they delay the creation of superintelligence to 2040. It would have happened much sooner (in 2030, to be precise) if not for decisive action on the part of the US and Chinese governments. 

As with AI 2027, summaries don’t really do it justice, since the whole point was to be detailed and comprehensive and work things out step by step rather than rely on high-level abstractions like doom or utopia. 

Read the scenario at ai-2040.com. You can...