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Calibration
•
Applied to
Markets Are Information - Beating the Sportsbooks at Their Own Game
by
JJXW
26d
ago
•
Applied to
Concrete benefits of making predictions
by
Jonny Spicer
2mo
ago
•
Applied to
Calibration training for 'percentile rankings'?
by
david reinstein
3mo
ago
•
Applied to
I didn't think I'd take the time to build this calibration training game, but with websim it took roughly 30 seconds, so here it is!
by
mako yass
4mo
ago
•
Applied to
Cambridge Prediction Game
by
Screwtape
4mo
ago
•
Applied to
How to best measure if and to what degree you’re too pessimistic or too optimistic?
by
CstineSublime
8mo
ago
•
Applied to
Are (Motor)sports like F1 a good thing to calibrate estimates against?
by
CstineSublime
8mo
ago
Saul Munn
v1.9.0
Dec 24th 2023 GMT
(
+37
/
-28
)
LW
1
https://bayes-up.web.app/
http://acritch.com/media/mphd/calibration-exercises.pdf
http://acritch.com/credence-game/
http://confidence.success-equation.com/
https://calibration-practice.neocities.org/
All different URLs for the same application:
https://programs.clearerthinking.org/calibrate_your_judgment.html
https://www.openphilanthropy.org/calibration
https://80000hours.org/calibration-training/
http://www.2pih.com/caltest/
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.the_calibration_game
https://www.metaculus.com/tutorials/
https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/
https://outsidetheasylum.blog/probability-calibration/
https://peterattiamd.com/confidence/
http://quantifiedintuitions.org/calibration
http://web.archive.org/web/20100529074053/http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/tom/?p=129
http://credencecalibration.com/
(dead link)
https://calibration.lazdini.lv/
(dead link)
http://web.archive.org/web/20161020032514/http://calibratedprobabilityassessment.org/
https://predictionbook.com/credence_games/try
Read-only
; recommends
https://fatebook.io/
https://calibration-training.netlify.app/
(dead link)
http://www.2pih.com/caltest/
(broken)
Jim Fisher
v1.8.0
Sep 11th 2023 GMT
(
+532
/
-362
)
LW
1
https://bayes-up.web.app/
http://acritch.com/media/mphd/calibration-exercises.pdf
http://acritch.com/credence-game/
http://confidence.success-equation.com/
https://calibration-practice.neocities.org/
http://web.archive.org/web/20100529074053/http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/tom/?p=129
http://credencecalibration.com/
All different URLs for the same application:
https://programs.clearerthinking.org/calibrate_your_judgment.html
https://www.openphilanthropy.org/calibration
or
https://80000hours.org/calibration-training/
(Different URLs for same application.)
https://calibration.lazdini.lv/
http://www.2pih.com/caltest/
http://web.archive.org/web/20161020032514/http://calibratedprobabilityassessment.org/
https://predictionbook.com/credence_games/try
https://calibration-training.netlify.app/
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.the_calibration_game
https://www.metaculus.com/tutorials/
https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/
https://outsidetheasylum.blog/probability-calibration/
https://peterattiamd.com/confidence/
http://quantifiedintuitions.org/calibration
Exercises that are dead/unmaintained:
http://web.archive.org/web/20100529074053/http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/tom/?p=129
http://credencecalibration.com/
(dead link)
https://calibration.lazdini.lv/
(dead link)
http://web.archive.org/web/20161020032514/http://calibratedprobabilityassessment.org/
https://predictionbook.com/credence_games/try
Read-only
; recommends
https://fatebook.io/
https://calibration-training.netlify.app/
(dead link)
•
Applied to
ChatGPT challenges the case for human irrationality
by
Kevin Dorst
1y
ago
•
Applied to
Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
by
jellyb
1y
ago
•
Applied to
A Subtle Selection Effect in Overconfidence Studies
by
Kevin Dorst
1y
ago
•
Applied to
Anthropically Blind: the anthropic shadow is reflectively inconsistent
by
Christopher King
1y
ago
•
Applied to
The Case for Overconfidence is Overstated
by
Kevin Dorst
1y
ago
•
Applied to
Proposal: Tune LLMs to Use Calibrated Language
by
OneManyNone
2y
ago
•
Applied to
Anki with Uncertainty: Turn any flashcard deck into a calibration training tool
by
Raymond Arnold
2y
ago
•
Applied to
What is calibration?
by
Ruben Bloom
2y
ago
•
Applied to
Breaking Rank (Calibration Game)
by
jenn
2y
ago
•
Applied to
Outrangeous (Calibration Game)
by
jenn
2y
ago
•
Applied to
Takeaways from calibration training
by
Olli Järviniemi
2y
ago
http://www.2pih.com/caltest/