AI ALIGNMENT FORUM
Tags
AF

Forecasting & Prediction

•

Applied to Predict 2025 AI capabilities (by Sunday) by Jonas V 7h ago

•

Applied to How do you decide to phrase predictions you ask of others? (and how do you make your own?) by CstineSublime 5d ago

•

Applied to Predicting AI Releases Through Side Channels by Reworr R 8d ago

•

Applied to Introducing Squiggle AI by Ozzie Gooen 12d ago

•

Applied to Grading my 2024 AI predictions by Nikola Jurkovic 13d ago

•

Applied to No, the Polymarket price does not mean we can immediately conclude what the probability of a bird flu pandemic is. We also need to know the interest rate! by Christopher King 18d ago

•

Applied to Forecast 2025 With Vox's Future Perfect Team — $2,500 Prize Pool by RobertM 24d ago

•

Applied to The Technist Reformation: A Discussion with o1 About The Coming Economic Event Horizon by Raymond Arnold 1mo ago

•

Applied to Forecast With GiveWell by Raymond Arnold 1mo ago

•

Applied to Mathematical Futurology: From Pseudoscience to Rigorous Framework by Wenitte Apiou 2mo ago

•

Applied to "Map of AI Futures" - An interactive flowchart by Swante Scholz 2mo ago

•

Applied to Will Orion/Gemini 2/Llama-4 outperform o1 by LuigiPagani 2mo ago

•

Applied to Seven lessons I didn't learn from election day by Rasool 2mo ago

•

Applied to Markets Are Information - Beating the Sportsbooks at Their Own Game by JJXW 2mo ago

•

Applied to How Likely Are Various Precursors of Existential Risk? by Nuno Sempere 3mo ago

•

Applied to Concrete benefits of making predictions by Jonny Spicer 3mo ago

•

Applied to The Great Bootstrap by KristianRonn 3mo ago

•

Applied to Launching Adjacent News by Lucas Kohorst 3mo ago

•

Applied to Can AI Outpredict Humans? Results From Metaculus's Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark by Raymond Arnold 3mo ago