When betting, you should discount the scenarios where you're unable to enjoy the reward to zero. In less accurate terms, any doom scenario that involves you personally dying should be treated as impossible, because the expected utility of winning is zero.
Oh, this is definitely not what I meant.
"Betting odds" == Your actual belief after factoring in other people's opinions
"Inside view" == What your models predict, before factoring in other opinions or the possibility of being completely wrong
When betting, you should discount the scenarios where you're unable to enjoy the reward to zero. In less accurate terms, any doom scenario that involves you personally dying should be treated as impossible, because the expected utility of winning is zero.