One issue I see with this plan is that it seems to rely on some mathematics that appear to me to not be fully worked out, e.g. infrabayesianism and «boundaries» (for which I haven't been able to find a full mathematical description), and it looks unclear to me whether they will actually be finished in time, and if they are, whether they lead to algorithms that are efficient enough to be scaled to such an ambitious project.
That’s basically correct. OAA is more like a research agenda and a story about how one would put the research outputs together to build safe AI, than an engineering agenda that humanity entirely knows how to build. Even I think it’s only about 30% likely to work in time.
I would love it if humanity had a plan that was more likely to be feasible, and in my opinion that’s still an open problem!
One issue I see with this plan is that it seems to rely on some mathematics that appear to me to not be fully worked out, e.g. infrabayesianism and «boundaries» (for which I haven't been able to find a full mathematical description), and it looks unclear to me whether they will actually be finished in time, and if they are, whether they lead to algorithms that are efficient enough to be scaled to such an ambitious project.