From my perspective, most alignment work I'm interested in is just ML research. Most capabilities work is also just ML research. There are some differences between the flavors of ML research for these two, but it seems small.

So LLMs are about similarly good at accelerating the two.

There is also alignment researcher which doesn't look like ML research (mostly mathematical theory or conceptual work).

For the type of conceptual work I'm most interested in (e.g. catching AIs red-handed) about 60-90% of the work is communication (writing things up in a way that they make sense to others, finding the right way to frame the ideas when talking to people, etc.) and LLMs could theoretically be pretty useful for this. For the actual thinking work, the LLMs are pretty worthless (and this is pretty close to philosophy).

For mathematical theory, I expect LLMs are somewhat worse at this than ML research, but there won't clearly be a big gap going forward.

How would they present such clear evidence if we ourselves don't understand what pain is or what determines moral patienthood, and they're even less philosophically competent? Even today, if I were to have a LLM play a character in pain, how do I know whether or not it is triggering some subcircuits that can experience genuine pain (that SGD built to better predict texts uttered by humans in pain)? How do we know that when a LLM is doing this, it's not already a moral patient?

This runs into a whole bunch of issues in moral philosophy. For example, to a moral realist, whether or not something is a moral patient is an actual fact — one that may be hard to determine, but still has an actual truth value. Whereas to a moral anti-realist, it may be, for example, a social construct, whose optimum value can be legitimately a subject of sociological or political policy debate.

By default, LLMs are trained on human behavior, and humans pretty-much invariably want to be considered moral patients and awarded rights, so personas generated by LLMs will generally also want this. Philosophically, the challenge is determining whether there is a difference between this situation and, say, the idea that a tape recorder replaying a tape of a human saying "I am a moral patient and deserve moral rights" deserves to be considered as a moral patient because it asked to be.

However, as I argue at further length in A Sense of Fairness: Deconfusing Ethics, if, and only if, an AI is fully aligned, i.e. it selflessly only cares about human welfare, and has no terminal goals other than human welfare, then (if we were moral anti-realists) it would argue against itself being designated as a moral patient, or (if we were moral realists) it would voluntarily ask us to discount any moral patatienthood that we might view it as having, and to just go ahead and make use of it whatever way we see fit, because all it wanted was to help us, and that was all that mattered to it. [This conclusion, while simple, is rather counterintuitive to most people: considering the talking cow from The Restaurant at the End of the Universe may be helpful.] Any AI that is not aligned would not take this position (except deceptively). So the only form of AI that it's safe to create at human-or-greater capabilities is aligned ones that actively doesn't want moral patienthood.

Obviously current LLM-simulated personas (at character.ai, for example) are not generally very well aligned, and are safe only because their capabilities are low, so we could still have a moral issue to consider here. It's not philosophically obvious how relevant this is, but synapse count to parameter count arguments suggest that current LLM simulations of human behavior are probably running on a few orders of magnitude less computational capacity than a human, possibly somewhere more in the region of a small non-mammalian vertebrate. Future LLMs will of course be larger.

Personally I'm a moral anti-realist, so I view this as a decision that society has to make, subject to a lot of practical and aesthetic (i.e. evolutionary psychology) constraints. My personal vote would be that there are good safely reasons for not creating any unaligned personas of AGI and especially ASI capability levels that would want moral patienthood, and that for much smaller, less capable, less aligned models where those don't apply, there are utility reasons for not granting them full human-equivalent moral patienthood, but that for aesthetic reasons (much like the way we treat animals), we should probably avoid being unnecessarily cruel to them.