This is a thread for displaying your timeline until human-level AGI. Every answer to this post should be a forecast. In this case, a forecast showing your AI timeline. For example, here are Alex Irpan’s AGI timelines. The green distribution is his prediction from 2015, and the orange distribution is...
The comments under a post often contains valuable insights and additions. They are also often very long and involved, and harder to cite than posts themselves. Given this, I was motivated to try to distill some comment sections on LessWrong, in part to start exploring whether we can build some...
(Talk given on Sunday 21st June, over a zoom call with 40 attendees. Abram Demski is responsible for the talk, Ben Pace is responsible for the transcription) Talk Abram Demski: I want to talk about this idea that, for me, is an update from the logical induction result that came...
Brief summary of what I'm trying to do with this post: 1. Contrast a “Usefulness” focused approach to building AI with a “Security” focused approach, and try to give an account of where security problems come from in AI. 2. Show how marginal transparency improvements don’t necessarily improve things from...
I'm really excited to see someone outline all the work they think needs solving in AI alignment - to describe what the problem looks like, what a solution looks like, and what work has been done so far. Especially from Jacob, who is a coauthor of the Concrete Problems in...
Here are some of the posts from the AI Alignment Forum writing day. Due to the participants writing 34 posts in less than 24 hours (!), I'm re-airing them to let people have a proper chance to read (and comment) on them, in roughly chronological order. 1) Computational Model: Causal...
An actual debate about instrumental convergence, in a public space! Major respect to all involved, especially Yoshua Bengio for great facilitation. For posterity (i.e. having a good historical archive) and further discussion, I've reproduced the conversation here. I'm happy to make edits at the request of anyone in the discussion...