I'm imagining a scenario in which OpenAI etc. continue to scale up their language models, and eventually we get GPT-6, which has the following properties:
--It can predict random internet text better than the best humans
--It can answer correctly questions which seem to require long chains of reasoning to answer
--With appropriate prompts it can write novel arguments, proofs, code, etc. of quality about equal to the stuff it has read on the internet. (The best stuff, if the prompt is designed correctly)
--With appropriate prompts it can give advice about arbitrary situations, including advice about strategies and plans. Again, the advice is about as good as the stuff it read on the internet, or the best stuff, if prompted correctly.
--It costs $200 per page of output, because just running the model requires a giant computing cluster.
My question is, how does this transform the world? I have the feeling that the world would be transformed pretty quickly. At the very least, the price of running the model would drop by orders of magnitude over the next few years due to algorithmic and hardware improvements, and then we'd see lots of jobs getting automated. But I'm pretty sure stuff would go crazy even before then. How?
(CONTEXT: I'm trying to decide whether "Expensive AGI" is meaningfully different from the usual AGI scenarios. If we get AGI but it costs $200 per page instead of $2, and thus isn't economically viable for most jobs, does that matter? EDIT: What if it costs $2,000 or $20,000 per page? Do things go FOOM soon even in that case?)
I'm imagining a scenario in which OpenAI etc. continue to scale up their language models, and eventually we get GPT-6, which has the following properties:
--It can predict random internet text better than the best humans
--It can answer correctly questions which seem to require long chains of reasoning to answer
--With appropriate prompts it can write novel arguments, proofs, code, etc. of quality about equal to the stuff it has read on the internet. (The best stuff, if the prompt is designed correctly)
--With appropriate prompts it can give advice about arbitrary situations, including advice about strategies and plans. Again, the advice is about as good as the stuff it read on the internet, or the best stuff, if prompted correctly.
--It costs $200 per page of output, because just running the model requires a giant computing cluster.
My question is, how does this transform the world? I have the feeling that the world would be transformed pretty quickly. At the very least, the price of running the model would drop by orders of magnitude over the next few years due to algorithmic and hardware improvements, and then we'd see lots of jobs getting automated. But I'm pretty sure stuff would go crazy even before then. How?
(CONTEXT: I'm trying to decide whether "Expensive AGI" is meaningfully different from the usual AGI scenarios. If we get AGI but it costs $200 per page instead of $2, and thus isn't economically viable for most jobs, does that matter? EDIT: What if it costs $2,000 or $20,000 per page? Do things go FOOM soon even in that case?)