I very much agree with this concern and I think that synthetic biology can be a good comparable case to ground our intuitions and help estimate reasonable priors.
For years, researchers have been sounding the alarm around the risks of advanced biotech, especially around tools that allow gene synthesis and editing. And then we had Covid-19, a virus that regardless of the politicization, probably was created in a lab. And in any case, regardless of whether you believe it was or wasn't it seems clear that it easily could have been. Worse, it's clear that something like Covid could also relatively easily be created by an independent team with a fairly modest budget. This case seems analogous to the kind of "close call" described by @Buck. In fact, in.many ways Covid was worse than the example Buck gives, because millions of people died, trillions of dollars of damages were done to the economy, etc., so one could argue it might be more similar to an even worse case of an AI that briefly escapes and wreaks some havoc before being contained.
In any case, the end result is that there has been very little reaction from global governments in terms of regulating synthetic biology since Covid. Even the executive order earlier this year was pretty minimal and applies only to limited types of vendors, customers and sources of DNA.
Why don't they regulate? I suspect that the reasons are mostly the same as the ones @Buck mentions in his post. Regulation would stifle one of the most promising new areas of technological innovation and could impact the profits of the biotech sector. Plus worries that if the US regulates, China won't slow down and will win the race to new medications and other innovations, and so on.
I very much agree with this concern and I think that synthetic biology can be a good comparable case to ground our intuitions and help estimate reasonable priors.
For years, researchers have been sounding the alarm around the risks of advanced biotech, especially around tools that allow gene synthesis and editing. And then we had Covid-19, a virus that regardless of the politicization, probably was created in a lab. And in any case, regardless of whether you believe it was or wasn't it seems clear that it easily could have been. Worse, it's clear that something like Covid could also relatively easily be created by an independent team with a fairly modest budget. This case seems analogous to the kind of "close call" described by @Buck. In fact, in.many ways Covid was worse than the example Buck gives, because millions of people died, trillions of dollars of damages were done to the economy, etc., so one could argue it might be more similar to an even worse case of an AI that briefly escapes and wreaks some havoc before being contained.
In any case, the end result is that there has been very little reaction from global governments in terms of regulating synthetic biology since Covid. Even the executive order earlier this year was pretty minimal and applies only to limited types of vendors, customers and sources of DNA.
Why don't they regulate? I suspect that the reasons are mostly the same as the ones @Buck mentions in his post. Regulation would stifle one of the most promising new areas of technological innovation and could impact the profits of the biotech sector. Plus worries that if the US regulates, China won't slow down and will win the race to new medications and other innovations, and so on.