There has been some confusion about whether people are using inside views or all-things-considered betting odds when they talk about P(doom). Which do you give by default? What are your numbers for each?
Independent impressions (= inside view in your terminology), though my all-things-considered belief (= betting odds in your terminology) is pretty similar.
When betting, you should discount the scenarios where you're unable to enjoy the reward to zero. In less accurate terms, any doom scenario that involves you personally dying should be treated as impossible, because the expected utility of winning is zero.
There has been some confusion about whether people are using inside views or all-things-considered betting odds when they talk about P(doom). Which do you give by default? What are your numbers for each?